Smith Internal Poll: Smith Leads Senate Primary (PA U.S. Senate)

Tom Smith, Republican candidate for US Senate. was in Erie on December 21, 2011 and met with Chairman Salmon and four state committee members to present his views on the current state of the nation and state as well as on the economy.

He presented himself as a conservative supporting Ronald Reagan and subsequent conservative candidates. However he expressed regret for his support of former Senator Arlen Spector. He is seeking the support of the Pennsylvania and Erie Republicans in his quest for nomination at the April primary election. His video and biographic data appears on our web site for Senate Candidates

NEW POLL: TOM SMITH LEADING REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY FIELD “Tom smith clearly has the momentum in this race.” – Republican Pollster John McLaughlin (Pittsburgh) – The Tom Smith for Senate Campaign today released the results of a survey of 400 likely primary voters conducted by McLaughlin & Associates on December 21st: TOTAL TOM SMITH 22% SAM ROHRER 15% MARC SCARINGI 4% TIM BURNS 11% STEVE WELCH 10% UNDECIDED 38%

“Smith’s early lead is indicative of his strong biography and message that is resonating with Republican voters. The campaign’s ability to get that message out through paid media has been important to the lead,” Republican strategist and pollster John McLaughlin said of the findings.

“We’re overjoyed by the positive response we continue to receive from voters across Pennsylvania,” said Campaign Manager Jim Conroy. ”Tom’s tireless work ethic, ability to connect with the electorate and commitment of resources demonstrates his seriousness about being the Republican to face Senator Casey.”

KEY FINDINGS: More voters have a “favorable” opinion of Tom Smith than of his opponents: TOTAL TOM SMITH 31% favorable SAM ROHRER 27% MARC SCARINGI 14% TIM BURNS 25% STEVE WELCH 17% UNDECIDED 38%

METHODOLOGY: This survey of political attitudes was conducted among 400 likely Republican primary voters on December 21st, 2011, in Pennsylvania.

The survey was conducted using an established automated polling methodology. Calls were placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation based upon a likely Republican primary turnout model. All calls were placed to Republican primary voters from a list of past Republican primary voters. Voters were screened to be registered Republicans who are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican primary. After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

The population targets were based upon Republican primary data, a series of screening questions to determine subject knowledge, likely voters, and other factors. McLaughlin & Associates determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account voting history, statewide trends, and recent polling. The accuracy of the sample of 400 likely general election voters is within +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval.


With which political party are you registered? -Republican 100% -Democrat 0% -Independent/Other 0%

Gender (by observation): -Male 56% -Female 44%

Age: -18 – 39 19% -40 – 64 57% -65 and Over 24%

Area: – Philadelphia MM 28% —Montgomery County 6% —Philadelphia County 2% —Rest Philly MM 21% – Wilke /. NY / Elmira 14% – Johnstown – Altoona MM 9% – Pittsburgh MM 23% —Alleghany County 8% —Rest Pittsburgh 15% – Erie 4% – Harrisburg 23%

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